How do you estimate ARV?
From closed sales of renovated comparable properties within roughly six months and a tight radius, adjusted for living area, bed and bath count, lot and finish level, then capped by the neighborhood ceiling.
Methodology
How we estimate after-repair value
We estimate after-repair value from closed sales of renovated comparable properties within roughly six months and a tight geographic radius, adjusted for living area, bed and bath count, lot and finish level. We use closed sales only — never active listings — and we show the adjustments rather than reporting a single unexplained number.
What this is
- What it is
- The documented method behind the after-repair value shown in a Property Intelligence brief.
- Who it is for
- Flippers, BRRRR investors, and any buyer pricing a property that needs work.
- The problem it solves
- ARV is the number that decides whether a renovation profits, and it is the number most often taken from a listing price or a per-square-foot average.
What the method requires
Closed comparable sales
Renovated properties of similar type, size and age, sold recently and nearby.
Scope of work
What the renovation will actually deliver, so the comparison is to the finished condition, not the current one.
Neighborhood ceiling
The highest recent closing on the block, which caps what finishes can return.
The method, step by step
01
Select comparable sales
Closed within roughly six months, same property type, tight radius, renovated to a similar level.
02
Adjust for differences
Living area, bedroom and bathroom count, lot, garage, and finish level — each adjustment stated.
03
Test against the ceiling
Cap the estimate at what the neighborhood has actually paid.
04
Publish a range
Report a supported range with a confidence, not a single figure implying precision we do not have.
What we will not do
- We do not use active listings as evidence of value.
- We do not use a flat per-square-foot multiplier in place of adjusted comparables.
- When fewer than three genuine comparables exist, we say so and widen the range.
Questions about this method
Why don't you use listing prices?
A listing price is an asking price. Only a closed sale proves what a buyer paid.
What to read next
See this method applied to one address
Property Intelligence™ runs this method against verified records, the documents you upload and professional review — then states a recommendation, its confidence, and exactly what is still missing.