Methodology

How confidence is calculated

Confidence reflects how much of a recommendation rests on verified evidence rather than assumption. It rises with the share of inputs verified from primary sources, the quality and recency of those sources, and agreement between independent lines of evidence. It falls when a material input is missing, stale, or contradicted.

What this is

What it is: The documented basis for the confidence level shown on every Property Intelligence recommendation.
Who it is for: Anyone deciding how much weight to place on a recommendation.
The problem it solves: A recommendation with no stated confidence forces the reader to assume it is certain. Most real estate decisions are made on incomplete information, and pretending otherwise is the failure mode we exist to fix.

What the method requires

Evidence coverage
What share of the inputs a recommendation depends on are verified rather than assumed.
Source quality
Primary records and signed documents outrank third-party estimates.
Recency
How recent the comparable sales, tax records and condition evidence are.
Agreement
Whether independent sources point the same direction.

The method, step by step

01
Label every input
Each input is marked verified, documented or assumed, with its source.
02
Weight by materiality
A missing input that changes the answer costs more confidence than one that does not.
03
Check agreement
Independent sources that disagree lower confidence and are surfaced as a conflict, not averaged away.
04
Publish the gaps
The brief lists what is missing and what document would close each gap.

What we will not do

Confidence is never inflated to make a brief feel finished.
A high confidence never implies a guarantee of outcome.
Where evidence conflicts, we show the conflict rather than resolving it silently.

Questions about this method

What does the confidence level on a recommendation mean?

It states how much of the recommendation rests on verified evidence rather than assumption. High confidence means the material inputs were verified from primary sources and agree with each other.

Why is my confidence low?

Because a material input is still missing, stale or contradicted. The brief names the specific gap and the document that would close it.

What to read next

How we estimate cash flowMethodology How we evaluate conditionMethodology

See this method applied to one address

Property Intelligence™ runs this method against verified records, the documents you upload and professional review — then states a recommendation, its confidence, and exactly what is still missing.

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